Vice President Kamala Harris is locked in a close race against former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to polls ahead of her rally in Philadelphia on Tuesday.
The crucial battleground state has been chosen as the location for her first big public event following the announcement of her running mate in the 2024 presidential election.
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Democrats view Pennsylvania as a critical state for Harris. Although she could win the election without it, Pennsylvania’s 19 Electoral College votes would give her a much easier path to the 270 needed to defeat former President Donald Trump.
The state is roughly divided between Democrats and Republicans, backing Trump in 2016 but flipping back to Democrats to support President Joe Biden in 2020.
Harris emerged as the Democratic presidential nominee after Biden withdrew from the race last month amid pressure from Democrats concerned about polls showing Trump leading key states, including Pennsylvania. Biden’s poll numbers slipped following his debate against Trump in June, which fueled concerns about his age and ability to win in November.
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For months, Harris polled similarly, or behind Biden. But her ascent to the top of the ticket sparked a wave of Democratic enthusiasm, and fundraising, that has shifted polls in her direction, giving Democrats more confidence about their ability to win.
A new poll of Pennsylvania voters released on Monday showed Trump trailing Harris in the Keystone State.
The GQR poll found Harris leading Trump by four percentage pints (50 percent to 46 percent). Two percent of respondents said they were leaning toward other candidates, and another two percent remained undecided, according to the survey.
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It polled 500 likely voters from July 26 to July 30, 2024 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 percentage points.
The poll comes as Harris is set to hold a rally in Philadelphia on Tuesday with her running mate, who is yet to be announced. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is viewed as a front-runner to become her vice presidential candidate, due largely to his electoral success in the state in past elections.
Other polls have pointed to a tight race since Harris became the Democratic nominee. On Monday, FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate showed the two candidates nearly tied, with Harris receiving average support of 45.3 percent and Trump averaging 44.4 percent.
A Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll, conducted among 600 likely voters from July 29 to August 1, found the race tied. In a two-way race, each received 48 percent. When Kennedy was included, they each received 45 percent support, according to the poll.
Meanwhile, a Public Policy Polling survey, conducted among 627 registered voters from July 29 to 30, found Trump with a 1-point lead (48 percent to 47 percent).
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A Public Opinion Strategies poll, conducted among 400 likely voters from July 23 to 29, found Harris with a 3-point lead (48 percent to 45 percent).
Newsweek reached out to the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
Harris and her running mate are expected to travel to the key swing states this week to continue building enthusiasm, as well as winning over undecided swing voters who could determine the outcome of the election.
In addition to Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin are viewed as the most competitive states. Biden won all but North Carolina in 2020.
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Biden carried Pennsylvania by only 1.2 points in 2020, winning 50 percent of the vote to Trump’s 48.8 percent. In 2016, Trump won by an even smaller margin, winning 48.2 percent of the vote compared to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s 47.5 percent.
