Anew poll spells potential trouble for former President Donald Trump as he stands trial in Manhattan in his criminal hush money case.
Trump, the presumptive 2024 Republican presidential nominee, became the first former president in U.S. history to stand trial in a criminal case last month. Following an investigation by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office, Trump was indicted in March 2023 on 34 charges of allegedly falsifying business records relating to hush money payments that were made to adult film star Stormy Daniels during his 2016 presidential campaign. Daniels alleges she had an affair with Trump in 2006, which he has denied. The former president has pleaded not guilty to all charges and said the case against him is politically motivated.
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Despite Trump’s legal troubles, which include three other criminal indictments—all of which he has pleaded not guilty to—it remains a tight race in the polls between the former president and his likely challenger in November, President Joe Biden, the Democratic incumbent.
However, this can change if Trump is convicted. According to an ABC News/Ipsos poll produced by Langer Research Associates and conducted between April 25 to 30 that was published on Sunday, 80 percent of Trump’s supporters said they will continue to stand by him if he was convicted of a felony in the hush money case. Meanwhile, 20 percent of his base would either reconsider their support (16 percent) or withdraw their support of Trump (4 percent).
The sample size of the subgroup of Trump supporters was 937 adults with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4. The national sample size of the poll was 2,260 adults and the margin of error for the full sample was 2 percentage points. Of the national sample size, 31 percent were Democrats, 29 percent were Republicans and 28 percent were independents.
Newsweek has reached out to Trump’s and Biden’s campaigns for comment.
Democratic political strategist Brad Bannon told Newsweek via email on Sunday that “the matchup between Biden and Trump could be a closely contested race, as tight as a tick on a hound drop.”
He added: “A Trump conviction could be all that the president needs to squeeze out a win over his predecessor. Trump is not doing himself any favors with his antics before, during and after his days in court. If he loses in trial court, he losses bigly in the court of public opinion.”
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Meanwhile, results varied in a matchup between Trump and Biden, depending on how adults in the poll identified.
Just looking at all adults surveyed, excluding people who said they wouldn’t vote, 46 percent supported Trump while 44 percent supported Biden. However, Biden led Trump among registered and likely voters. A total of 46 percent of registered voters supported Biden while 45 percent supported Trump. Meanwhile, 49 percent of likely voters supported Biden while 45 percent supported Trump.
While it is still unclear how much damage a felony conviction in any of the four criminal indictments can have on Trump’s campaign, a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted from February 9 to 12 found that 55 percent of American adults would not vote for Trump if he was convicted of a felony. That number is 51 percent among Republicans.
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The full sample size of that poll was 1,237 people, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.91. The sample size of Republicans was 502, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.26 percentage points.
