Joe Biden has a slim lead over Donald Trump in a potential presidential contest between the two according to two recently released U.S.-wide polls, a stark improvement for the Democratic incumbent following the release of three national polls putting him behind the Republican frontrunner.
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The surveys, from pollsters Ipsos and YouGov, gave Biden a lead of between one and two percentage points, though a Newsweek analysis released earlier this month suggested Trump is on track for a second White House term due to his stronger performance in key swing states.
On January 15, Trump scored a resounding victory in the Iowa Republican caucus, taking 51 percent of the vote versus 21.2 percent for second placed Governor Ron DeSantis, 19.1 percent for Nikki Haley and 7.7 percent for Vivek Ramaswamy, who then dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump.
The Ipsos survey of 3,815 registered voters, conducted between January 3 and 9 for Reuters, found Biden was the preferred choice of 40 percent of voters, against Trump on 38 percent, when these were the only two candidates highlighted. In this scenario, another 10 percent of voters said they would back “some other candidate.” When third party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was also included, Biden and Trump fell to 34 percent and 33 percent respectively, against 17 percent for the vaccine sceptic independent.
Similarly, the YouGov poll of 1,472 registered voters, which took place between January 14 and 16 for The Economist, gave Biden 44 percent versus 43 percent for Trump.
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Notably, the survey found Biden was substantially more popular with younger voters, winning the 18-29 demographic by 56 percent to 29 percent, whilst Trump led for voters aged 65 plus by 51 percent to 40 percent. Biden also had a substantial lead amongst female voters, of 46 percent against 38 percent, but Trump had a six-point lead among their male counterparts.
When it came to race, Trump led Biden with white voters by 50 percent to 39 percent, whilst the incumbent was ahead with Black and Hispanic voters, by 57 percent versus 18 percent and 50 percent versus 31 percent respectively.
Newsweek has reached out to representatives of Joe Biden and Donald Trump for comment by email.
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Primary voters in New Hampshire will go to the polls on January 23. A recent poll, for Suffolk University, The Boston Globe and NBC, gave Trump a 16-point lead over second placed Haley. This represents a sharp turnaround from an American Research Group poll conducted between December 27 and January 3, which put Trump ahead of the former South Carolina governor by just four percent.
Several recent polls have shown Trump beating Biden in Pennsylvania, the key swing state where Biden was born in 1942. A recent Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll put the Republican frontrunner ahead by 40 percent to 39 percent, whilst a Quinnipiac University survey gave Trump 49 percent against 46 percent for the Democratic incumbent.
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