Joe Biden might make a crucial mistake in underestimating Donald Trump: Former President Donald Trump is a man of many historical firsts. He can add being the first man to run for president who has been indicted to the list. Traditionally, controversy of the sort that Trump has routinely courted throughout his many years in public would be disqualifying for most voters.
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Yet, that does not appear to the case for Trump. In fact, the indictments appear to be paradoxically propelling his unlikely campaign for reelection forward.
This is why Team Biden must be cautious. Many Democrats and many in the White House likely think President Joe Biden would crush Trump in a 2024 match-up. That would be a big mistake.
Want proof? A recent Harvard CAPS Harris Poll that was conducted shortly after Trump’s recent federal indictment on 37 counts of having violated the Espionage Act and obstruction of justice shows that the forty-fifth president would defeat Democratic Party President Joe Biden 45 percent to 39 percent in a head-to-head matchup.
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This is a week after a Quinnipiac Poll indicated that Trump would lose to Biden in a head-to-head matchup by two points. The ground is shifting. And the Biden campaign’s hope that the shift was going to be in his favor after the spate of indictments is not yet materializing.
The Biden campaign may have miscalculated as well. A series of polls have been conducted which consistently show that majorities of Americans believe the Trump prosecutions, while “serious” are also “politically motivated.”
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Democrats and Double-Standards
Those perceptions are reinforced when the forty-sixth president faces his own fallout related to the mishandling of classified documents, but has yet to be held accountable in the same way that Trump is being held accountable.
In fact, most Americans polled believe that both Trump and Biden misbehaved regarding the handling of classified documents. Yet, it is only Trump being prosecuted.
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Even the perennially “Never Trump” CNN had a former federal prosecutor on who ruminated about the oddness of how slow the federal grand jury investigation into Biden’s mishandled classified documents was going. It was, as the former Department of Justice lawyer stated, “odd.” In other words, the DOJ again appeared to show favoritism toward Biden.
I say “again” because there is already reason to believe the FBI, an arm of the DOJ, has been shielding the wayward First Son, Hunter Biden, from investigators from the United States House of Representatives looking into whether Hunter was representing his father while engaging in a yearslong, widespread, possibly illicit international influence-peddling scheme.
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In fact, we know that senior elements (many of whom were retired at the time) of the Intelligence Community signed a letter that was written by the Biden campaign in 2020 unequivocally stating that any investigation into Hunter Biden was predicated upon “Russian disinformation.”
With that letter having been signed by such respected elements of the IC, the media was able to ignore the Hunter Biden laptop scandal throughout the 2020 presidential election and deflect the voters’ attention away from it.
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Most voters who supported Biden over Trump said that, if they had known about the extent of the Hunter Biden scandal during the 2020 campaign, they would have changed their vote to support Trump over Biden.
Meanwhile, the DOJ has made what former U.S. Attorney Andrew C. McCarthy described in National Review was an “intentionally provocative” plea deal with Hunter Biden in the case involving charges that he engaged in tax evasion and illegally possessed a firearm.
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The plea deal was made just ten days after Trump was indicted for having mishandled classified documents. The deal in question would keep Hunter out of jail and basically help to keep a tighter lid on the attempts by investigators looking into Hunter’s other alleged crimes that could implicate the president.
Whatever one’s opinion about Trump, it is obvious that the federal government is overreacting to his perceived crimes — especially when that same government is doing everything in its power to avoid prosecuting the current president for similar and possibly worse crimes.
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All this is contributing to Trump’s support and popularity, apparently not just among Republican voters (he leads his only serious challenger, Florida’s Governor Ron DeSantis, by more than 30 points) but among all voters, too.
Of course, there is a long way to go between now and election day.
Can Trump Really Win?
While Trump does lead Ron DeSantis, it remains to be seen if he can maintain that lead.
After all, DeSantis may be trailing Trump nationally, but he is now in a “virtual tie” with Trump in key battleground states such as Iowa. Should Trump best DeSantis and become the GOP nominee, the question still remains if Trump can truly appeal to enough independent voters and minorities to put him over Biden.
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A five-point lead in a head-to-head matchup, such as the one he seems to be enjoying in that Harvard poll mentioned above, is hardly decisive. Trump needs more support, and many other polls have shown that the independent voters of America hate Trump. (DeSantis does much better than Trump).
Because much can happen between now and November 2024, Trump’s campaign needs to figure out its next, best course of action. And they need to remember that most Americans believe the former president violated the law and should be punished accordingly.
They just dislike that Biden, who is suspected of having committed similar crimes, is not being held to the same standard. But if Trump is again the GOP nominee, will that sentiment that Trump is being unfairly treated translate to the kind of support he needs to beat Biden, who will again try to pass himself off as the purportedly “safer” and “steadier” candidate in 2024 as he did in 2020?
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If history is any guide, Trump will have the same problem in 2024 as he did four years ago against Joe Biden.
