Asian shares slipped on Wednesday as a stellar rebound in world stocks paused for breath, while bond yields and the dollar fell ahead of U.S. economic data and speeches from policymakers that are expected to make the case for interest rate cuts.
The S&P 500 snapped eight sessions of gains with a 0.2% overnight drop. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.5%. U.S and European futures each drifted about 0.2% higher.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slid 1% with JD.com dropping 10% as top shareholder Walmart moved to sell its large stake.
Japan’s Nikkei fell 1% at the open as a recovery from its collapse in early August runs into resistance around the 38,000 level, but it recovered to trade 0.3% lower in the afternoon.
“The sell-off itself has largely corrected, and the recession scare has given way to soft landing hopes again,” said Bank of Singapore analyst Moh Siong Sim.
“But now we are back to square one and … the market needs validation before it can be more relaxed, and that validation must come from data.”
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Later on Wednesday preliminary revisions to U.S. labour data are due to be published and a large downward revision is expected, which would support cutting interest rates. Federal Reserve minutes are also expected to reinforce a dovish stance.
On Thursday, U.S. and global purchasing managers’ index surveys are due.
The falling dollar has launched gold to record highs and returned the yen to 145.67 per greenback, a gain of 1.6% for the week so far and some 11% higher than last month’s 38-year trough.
The euro is up nearly 3% for August to date and, at $1.1132 in Asia trade, is at its highest since early December and testing major chart levels.
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Interest rate futures have priced in a 25 basis point (bps) U.S. rate cut next month, with a 1/3 chance of a 50 bps cut. Almost 100 bps in cuts are priced in for this year, and another 100 bps next year.
“It is likely that the current softer tone of the greenback stems mostly from expectations that easier Fed policy is increasingly imminent,” Rabobank strategist Jane Foley said in a note.
“This raises the question as to whether Fed rate cut hopes are still overdone and the risk of near-term (euro/dollar) dips back below $1.10.”
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is due to make a speech at the Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming on Friday. The Australian and New Zealand dollars held sizeable recent gains with the Aussie at $0.6747 and kiwi at $0.6157.
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The mood kept bond markets supported and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields nudged lower to 3.81%, while two-year yields hovered at 3.99%.
Commodity prices stabilised with Brent crude futures at $77.12 a barrel and Dalian iron ore finding a floor after a Bloomberg report that China plans to allow local governments to buy unsold homes in the latest property-market support measure.
China is the world’s biggest steel consumer and markets are sensitive to any signs that construction could get back on track. Big miners’ shares were steady in Australia.
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Gold prices hovered at $2,516 an ounce, just below record levels touched on Tuesday.
In emerging markets, central banks in Thailand and Indonesia meet to set rates on Wednesday, though neither is expected to start cutting rates before the Federal Reserve.
