In the weeks since President Biden withdrew from the election race and endorsed Kamala Harris, polls have indicated a surge in voter enthusiasm for the vice president.
She has pulled ahead in several battleground states as well as nationally. But before Biden stepped aside, Donald Trump led polling in every one of these key states.
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So how do the polls currently view Harris’ chances of winning the battleground states that will decide the election? Looking at poll trends, state by state, the final analysis shows she has made progress, but will that be enough?
Harris is the presumptive Democratic nominee, with all her major potential rivals in the party having endorsed her. She and her running mate Tim Walz are set to be confirmed at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago later this month.
Trump has not led a national poll for over a week, with Harris leading by between 1 and 5 points in 17 of the 18 most recent surveys (one national survey has them tied).
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But as with Trump in 2016 and George W. Bush in 2000, a candidate can lose the popular vote nationally and still win the White House. While polling in most of the 50 states strongly indicate which candidate will win there in November, neither candidate currently strongly leads in enough states to win the election.
A handful of states remain as tossups and so it is these states that will effectively decide the outcome of the race.
Newsweek reached out to Harris and Trump’s campaigns for comment outside of regular working hours.
Here’s how Harris currently fares against Trump in key swing states.
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Arizona
In Arizona, Trump has led in five of the eight most recent polls. However the three polls where Harris does lead indicate a change of political winds in the state since she took over. Trump had beaten Biden in every Arizona poll since May, sometimes by margins of 10 to 15 points.
The latest survey, by Redfield and Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph, between July 31 and August 3, of 567 likely voters, found Harris leading 44 percent to Trump’s 43 percent.
Another poll taken by Public Policy Polling and funded by the Democrat-aligned Progress Action Fund, surveyed 618 registered voters between July 29 and 30 and shows Trump leading 49 percent to Harris’ 47 percent.
Polling aggregators have Trump slightly in the lead on average. FiveThirtyEight has Trump on 45.4 percent and Harris on 44.1. RaceToTheWhiteHouse has Trump on 48.8 and Harris on 46.7.
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Georgia
In Georgia, Trump has led in eight of the eleven most recent polls. Harris leads in one Democrat-funded poll and two more have the candidates tied.
However, even more extremely than in Arizona, Harris pulling even or ahead in Georgia shows a massive surge of support toward the Democrats. Trump had beaten Biden in every Georgia poll since May 2023, often by margins of 6 to 10 points.
The latest survey, by Redfield and Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph, between July 31 and August 3, of 1128 likely voters, found Trump leading 46 percent to Harris’s 44 percent.
Another poll taken by Public Policy Polling and funded by the Democrat-aligned Progress Action Fund, surveyed 662 registered voters between July 29 and 30 and showed Harris leading 48 percent to Trump’s 47 percent.
Polling aggregators have Trump slightly in the lead on average. FiveThirtyEight has Trump on 45.9 percent and Harris on 44.8. RaceToTheWhiteHouse has Trump on 48.2 and Harris on 47.5.
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Michigan
Recent polls of Michigan voters do not paint a clear picture of which direction the election will go. Trump leads in six of the twelve most recent polls, while the candidates pull even in four and in two polls, which were conducted by the same firm, Harris has a lead of over 10 points, indicating these results may be outliers.
The latest survey, by Redfield and Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph, between July 31 and August 3, of 771 likely voters, found Trump leading 42 percent to Harris’ 41 percent.
Another poll taken by Public Opinion Strategies, surveyed 400 likely voters between July 23 and 29 and showed Harris and Trump even on 45 percent each.
Polling aggregators have Harris slightly in the lead on average. FiveThirtyEight has Harris on 44.6 percent and Trump on 43.0. RaceToTheWhiteHouse has Harris on 49.2 percent and Trump on 46.5.
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Nevada
In Nevada, Trump has led in three of the six most recent polls. Harris leads in one and they are tied in two. However, similar to Arizona and Georgia, Biden had been losing Nevada by a significant margin. Trump led in every poll in the state since the first one held this election cycle, in February. The poll where Harris leads and the two where they pull even suggest a much tighter race than was expected under Biden.
The latest survey, by Redfield and Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph, between July 31 and August 3, of 470 likely voters, found Harris and Trump even on 40 per cent each.
The latest survey, by Redfield and Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph, between July 31 and August 3, of 470 likely voters, found Harris and Trump even on 40 per cent each.
Another poll taken by Public Opinion Strategies, surveyed 400 likely voters between July 23 and 29 and found Trump leading 46 percent to Harris’ 45 percent.
Polling aggregator RaceToTheWhiteHouse has Harris slightly in the lead on average, with 46.1 percent while Trump has 45.3 percent. FiveThirtyEight has not published an aggregate for Nevada since Biden dropped out.
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North Carolina
Trump leads Harris in every recent poll in North Carolina; he also led Biden in every poll before Biden stepped aside. However, the margin is drawing closer. The five polls conducted since July 19 have Trump ahead of Harris by between 1 and 4 points. Against Biden, Trump was leading by between 2 and 9 points.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is currently the closest race of the 50 states. Trump has led in five of the ten most recent polls, Harris has led in three, and they are tied in two.
The latest survey, by Redfield and Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph, between July 31 and August 3, of 743 likely voters, found Trump leading Harris 46 percent to Harris’ 44 percent.
Another poll taken by Public Opinion Strategies, surveyed 400 likely voters between July 23 and 29 and found Harris leading 48 percent to Trump’s 45 percent.
Polling aggregators have Harris very slightly in the lead on average, in both cases by less than one percent. FiveThirtyEight has Harris on 45.3 percent and Trump on 44.5. RaceToTheWhiteHouse has Harris on 48 percent and Trump on 47.9.
Before Biden dropped out, Trump had led in every Pennsylvania poll since the June 27 debate in Atlanta, where Biden’s performance was widely criticized.
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Wisconsin
Wisconsin is another close race. Harris has led in four of the nine most recent polls, Trump has led in two, and they are tied in three.
The latest survey, by Redfield and Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph, between July 31 and August 3, of 597 likely voters, found the candidates tied on 43 percent each.
Another poll taken by Public Opinion Strategies, surveyed 400 likely voters between July 23 and 29 and found Harris leading 48 percent to Trump’s 46 percent.
Polling aggregators have Harris very slightly in the lead on average. FiveThirtyEight has Harris on 45.8 percent and Trump on 44.4. RaceToTheWhiteHouse has Harris on 49.5 percent and Trump on 47.7.
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The final analysis
Using current polling numbers, Harris leads in four of the seven most competitive swing states, while Trump leads in three. According to the Electoral College polling map produced by RaceToTheWhiteHouse, if the election were exactly matched current polling in each state, Harris would win the Electoral College with 276 votes to Trump’s 262.
