Last Sunday, President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 presidential race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, positioning her to likely appear at the top of the Democratic Party’s ticket. As a new candidate, here’s how she matches up to Republican nominee Donald Trump, according to three large aggregate polls.
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Following weeks of interparty fighting among Democrats on whether Biden should pass the torch to the next generation after his debate fiasco against Trump last month in Atlanta, the president endorsed Harris the day he withdrew from the race, starting a flood of pro-Harris memes on TikTok, over $100 million worth of donations, and 170,000 campaign volunteers.
With 100 days until Election Day on November 5, aggregate polls from The New York Times, The Hill, and RealClearPolitics show Trump leading Harris at a smaller margin than her predecessor Biden prior to his exit.
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Aggregate Polls
Of the three aggregate polls, RealClearPolitics shows the smallest gap between Trump and Harris, with Trump ahead by 1.7 percentage points at 47.9 percent and Harris at 46.2 percent. Prior to his exit, Biden was down 3.1 percentage points, at 44.8 percent, with Trump at 47.9 percent, according to the RealClearPolitics poll average
The Times‘aggregate poll puts Harris at 2 percentage points behind Trump, 46 to 48 percent respectively. In the previous matchup between Biden and Trump, the archived New York Times poll showed an additional percentage point lead for Trump, with him at 47 percent and Biden at 44 percent.
The Hill’s aggregation shows Trump garnering 48 percent of the vote, with Harris behind 2.1 percentage points at 45.9 percent. Up until July 21, the date that Biden dropped out, The Hill’s aggregator showed him trailing Trump 43.3 to 46.6 percent, a 3.3 percentage point difference.
Newsweek has reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email on Sunday.
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Included Polls
Since Biden’s exit, the largest poll sample included in all three aggregates is the Morning Consult survey of 11,297 registered voters conducted between July 22 and 23. It found Harris leading Trump 46 to 45 percent—the highest level of support recorded for Democrats since tracking began in 2022, surpassing Biden. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.
That poll’s findings are similar to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted between July 22 and 23, which put Harris ahead of Trump for the White House, 44 to 42 percent respectively. However, the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent means either candidate could be leading. The online poll was of 1,241 adults, including 1,018 registered U.S. voters.
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On the other hand, a survey of 3,013 registered voters included in the aggregate national polls is the HarrisX/Forbes poll, conducted between July 22 and 25. The results showed that 47 percent of registered voters support Trump, while 45 percent support Harris. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.
The Rasmussen Reports poll, which was not included in the Times‘ aggregate, but in the other two, shows the largest margin lead for Trump.
A national telephone and online survey of 1,074 likely voters conducted from July 22 to 24 found that Trump had a 7-point lead over Harris. Fifty percent of voters support Trump, while 43 percent support Harris, 4 percent support another candidate, and 3 percent are undecided. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.
The presidential election is determined by Electoral College votes rather than the popular vote. Candidates must secure 270 electoral votes to win the presidency, which is not always accurately reflected in national aggregate polls, as state-specific victories are necessary to secure electoral votes.
