Donald Trump is marginally ahead of President Joe Biden in the swing state of Pennsylvania, according to recent polls.
The presumptive Republican presidential nominee is set to face the incumbent in November, and polls have so far shown that the results of the 2020 White House rematch will be tight, with the pair statistically tied or holding only marginal leads in a number of surveys.
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However, one state where Trump might take the lead is Pennsylvania, according to polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight.
The aggregator’s latest data shows that Trump is ahead of Biden by 0.5 percent of the vote, with 42.6 percent of the vote share compared to the Democrat’s 42.1 percent.
Newsweek contacted representatives for Biden and Trump by email outside of business hours to comment on this story.
Pennsylvania is a key swing state. In the 2020 election, Biden won the state by some 80,000 votes, winning it back from Trump, who in 2016 broke the state’s blue streak for the first time in 24 years.
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Only twice between 1932 and 1988 has a presidential candidate been able to win the White House without carrying Pennsylvania. No Democrat has been elected president without the state since 1948.
Polls in states like these are significant as the Electoral College system awards each state a certain number of votes based on population.
A presidential candidate must secure 270 electoral votes for victory, and winning the national popular vote does not guarantee the presidency.
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Perhaps with that in mind, both candidates have stepped up their campaigning in the state. The Biden campaign in Pennsylvania, for instance, is using more than 1,000 volunteers to canvas people and organize watch parties for the upcoming first debate between Biden and Trump, local publication Penn Capital-Star reported. Citing the president’s campaign, the publication said there will be more than 50 watch parties across the state.
Trump, on the other hand, held a rally at Temple University’s Liacouras Center in the Pennsylvania city of Philadelphia on June 22 as part of his election campaign. There, he called the city “one of the most egregious” places in the world.
However, with some five months to go until voters go to the polls, experts have warned it is too early to call the election. Speaking to Newsweek previously, Todd Landman, a professor of political science at Nottingham University in the U.K., said it was “still too far out from the election” to read much into swing state polls.
He said: “The race remains highly volatile, and it is still too far out from the election to make any firm conclusion from changing polls across these swing states.”
The presidential election will take place on November 5.
