President Joe Biden leads former President Donald Trump in a contest between the two candidates, according to eight recent polls.
The surveys give Biden a slight lead on a national basis ranging from one to three points, though it isn’t clear if it would give him an overall victory due to the Electoral College.
On March 12, Biden and Trump each won a series of primary elections to become their party’s presumptive presidential nominees. This focused attention on how a likely presidential election between the two rivals would play out.
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A Mainstream Research/Florida Atlantic University survey of 1,053 American adults conducted between March 15 and 17 found that among likely voters, 47 percent would vote for Biden “if the election for president were held today” against 45 percent for Trump. Four percent said they would vote for “another candidate,” while four percent said they were “undecided.”
Ipsos and Reuters conducted a poll of 3,356 registered voters between March 7 and 13 that found 39 percent would vote for Biden “if the 2024 election were today,” against 38 percent for Trump with 11 percent for “some other candidate.” The remainder were either unsure or not voting.
Civiqs surveyed 1,324 registered U.S. voters online between March 9 and 12, finding that 45 percent would vote for Biden in an immediate presidential election against 44 percent for Trump.
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An Emerson College survey of 1,350 registered voters on March 5 and 6 had Trump and Biden tied at 45 percent. However, once undecided voters were asked which candidate they leaned toward, Biden ended up at 51 percent against 49 percent for Trump.
The most recent YouGov/The Economist survey, published by the latter on March 22, gave Biden a one-point lead at 45 percent.
A Kaiser Family Foundation poll gave Biden a three-point lead over Trump, with 47 percent of the vote. The survey of 1,072 registered voters took place between February 20 and 28.
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Finally a TIPP poll gave Biden a one-point lead with 44 percent support.
Newsweek has contacted representatives of Trump’s and Biden’s 2024 presidential campaigns for comment by email.
If Biden wins the popular vote in November, he could still lose the White House to Trump due to how the Electoral College works, as Hillary Clinton did in 2016. Recent surveys have given Trump the lead in the battleground states of Michigan, Georgia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
Trump also polled ahead of Biden in three out of five national polls conducted over a short period in late January.
Following Trump’s and Biden’s primary wins on March 12, U.K.-based bookmaker Betfair offered odds of 11/10 (48 percent) on Trump winning November’s presidential election against 2/1 (33 percent) for Biden.
Speaking to Newsweek Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: “There has been £12.5 million [about $16 million] wagered on the Betfair Exchange market and 44 percent of that has been for Trump, punters [bettors] have been consistently backing him to return to the White House. However, Joe Biden has been the bigger mover in the market recently and he’s closing the gap on Trump.”
