Donald Trump could still face questions about his hopes to win the 2024 Election even if he sweeps the GOP primary races on Super Tuesday as expected.
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The former president is heading into the March 5 day of voting having all but secured the likelihood of him clinching the 2024 GOP nomination following victories in eight of the first nine primaries races.
Haley, Trump’s only serious challenger left in the Republican race, notched up her first primary win of the season on Sunday, winning the Washington D.C. election. Polls suggest that Trump could see substantial victories in all 16 GOP primary races which are taking place on Super Tuesday, with some surveys suggesting he could receive around three-quarters of the votes in some states.
However, despite Trump long being considered the clear favorite in the GOP primary, there also have been discussions about how he appears to have underperformed in past results compared to what polls indicated, with Haley still receiving potentially significant support despite the likelihood of her winning the nomination all but over.
In Michigan, Trump beat Haley in the primary by a huge 42 percentage points (68.1 percent to 26.5 percent). While still an overwhelming victory, FiveThirtyEight’s average poll tracker suggested Trump’s lead in Michigan was 78.7 percent on the eve of the primary.
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In Haley’s home state of South Carolina, Trump beat his only serious rival by 20 points (59.8 percent to 39.5 percent), but polls had the former president winning by an average of 27.7 points.
In New Hampshire, Trump won by 11 points (54.3 to 43.2 percent), but FiveThirtyEight’s average poll tracker suggested Trump would win by nearly 18 points.
Rick Wilson, founder of The Lincoln Project, a Republican super PAC founded by Trump critics, was one of those who suggested that Trump’s potential sweeping victories on Super Tuesday could mask the potential issues the former president could face in winning over the general population in November.
“Trump is supposed to win all these races, is supposed to be the dominant figure in the party,” Wilson told The Guardian.
“The fact that, depending on the state and the day, there’s still 20, 30, 40 percent Republicans who are saying no, I’m going to pass on this, and independent voters who are coming out to cast a vote against him, is not the unified-Republican-party theory of the case that there will be absolute fealty to him.”
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Responding to the claims that the former president underperformed in some primary races, Trump spokesperson Steve Cheung told Newsweek: “Anyone who thinks that is either delusional or disingenuous.
“Republican voters have delivered resounding wins for President Trump in every single primary contest and this race is over. Our focus is now on Joe Biden and the general election.”
One race where Haley could make serious inroads on Super Tuesday is Virginia, a state where she reduced Trump’s lead to eight points in a February Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) poll of likely GOP primary voters.
“Politically speaking and demographically speaking, it’s a favorable state for her,” Tucker Martin, a Virginia-based Republican strategist, told The Hill. “It’s a highly educated population. There’s a lot of traditional Republicans here.”
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Thomas Gift, founding director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, suggested that Trump has “virtually no pressure” heading into Super Tuesday, no matter what percentage of support Haley manages to receive.
“He will trounce Haley, and politically, anyone looking to make light of his domination are just grasping at straws, desperate to point out electoral weaknesses in a candidate who’s strutting his way to the Republican nomination,” Gift told Newsweek.
“Wins are wins at this point, whether the margins are 20 percent or 50 percent. More modest victories may be emblematic of the size of anti-Trump vote within the GOP, but the short-run effects of that difference for the primaries are trivial.”
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In a post on Truth Social on Sunday following Haley’s first victory in an election which only just over 2000 people voted in, Trump said he didn’t want the support of the Washington, D.C., electorate.
“I purposely stayed away from the D.C. Vote because it is the ‘Swamp,’ with very few delegates, and no upside,” Trump wrote.
