President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump appear headed for a potential rematch in the upcoming presidential election on November 5. Current polls indicate Trump’s significant lead among Republican candidates, while Biden faces little competition within the Democratic Party.
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However, underlying concerns about Trump’s legal challenges and the advanced ages of both candidates, 77 and 81, respectively, loom over the election landscape. Trump is currently confronting 91 felony charges, with a criminal trial anticipated this year, raising questions about the potential impact on the election.
The outcome of the election would hinge on various factors if either candidate were to withdraw due to health, legal, or other reasons. The timing of such a scenario is crucial, with distinct implications at different stages of the electoral process.
What If Trump or Biden Withdraws from the US Election (Credits: ABC News)
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Between January 15 and Party Conventions:
In the period between January 15 and June 4, 2024, witnesses states held caucuses and primary elections. The candidates winning the most delegates during this time will officially become their party’s nominees at the conventions. The Republican National Convention is scheduled for July 15-18 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, while the Democratic National Convention will take place on August 19-22 in Chicago, Illinois.
If a candidate withdraws between the start of the caucus-primary season and their party’s convention, some states may extend candidate filing deadlines and primary dates. This extension is more likely for Democrats, given Biden’s lack of significant competition. Emergency changes in laws may be enacted to allow delegates to switch their votes during the convention.
Between Conventions and Election Day:
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Each party has its own set of rules if its candidate drops out during this period. The candidate’s name on the presidential ballot may be replaced through emergency changes to some state laws. A smaller group of party leaders, not widely known to the public, may make this decision. In this scenario, parties would need to appeal to the American people to explain the new candidate’s legitimacy.
Between Election Day and the Electoral College Meeting:
After settling questions or challenges about election results, electors in each state will meet on December 17 to select the president-elect and vice president-elect. If Trump or Biden dies or becomes incapacitated during this time, the vice president-elect would not automatically become the replacement. Electors would vote for a new candidate with no federal guidance on the process.
Between the Electoral College Meeting and Congressional Certification:
It is unclear what would happen if a candidate dies or becomes incapacitated between the December 17 meeting of electors and the January 6 counting and certification of electoral votes in Congress.
Between Congressional Certification and Inauguration Day:
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According to the 20th Amendment, the vice president-elect would be inaugurated as president on January 20, 2025, if the president-elect dies or is incapacitated after Congress certifies the election result.
Throughout these periods, the potential for a legal and political crisis exists, particularly if the election result is contested. With Democrats holding a slim majority in the Senate and Republicans in the House of Representatives, determining the next president could become a complex process, possibly involving legal battles. The events of January 6, 2021, during the Capitol siege by Trump supporters, highlight the potential for political unrest during such periods.
