Wagner Group mercenaries have reportedly set up shop in three large field camps within Belarus, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which cited local reports in its latest assessment of the war in Ukraine.
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Questions have swirled in the past week over the future of the private military company (PMC) after Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin led a brief mutiny against the Kremlin military, resulting in Prigozhin’s exile to Belarus.
Prigozhin’s relocation was part of a larger negotiation brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who reportedly promised “an absolutely profitable and acceptable option for resolving the situation, with security guarantees for the fighters” in exchange for the Wagner rebellion dissolving, according to Lukashenko’s press service.
Priogzhin has yet to announce his future plans for his mercenaries, although Russian President Vladimir Putin has taken steps to dismantle the PMC’s actions in Russia. However, according to the Russian Telegram channel Unofficial Bezsonov, three field camps have started to be set up for Wagner forces within Belarus, including one confirmed camp in the town of Asipovichy. The other two camps will likely be set up in the western half of the country positioned against Poland, the user noted.
An apparent Belarusian user on Telegram responded to the Russian report that he could confirm that the first field camp in Asipovichy “is already ready,” adding that it is “quite large.” Both users were cited in ISW’s report on Friday.
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“The other two unidentified Wagner Group field camps may be located nearby Belarus’ large combined-arms training grounds, such as the Gozhsky Training Ground in Grodno Oblast, the Brest Training Ground near Brest City, or the Obuz-Lesnovsky Training Ground near Baranavichy,” the ISW noted. “Wagner fighters in Belarus would likely need access to such training facilities to serve in the training and advisory role that Russian sources continue to ascribe to them.”
The accounts come a day after ISW reported satellite images that purportedly show a former Belarusian military base under construction near Asipovichy, which the think tank noted could be the site of a new Wagner base. A Russian anti-Kremlin outlet also claimed earlier this week that Belarusian authorities were constructing “several camps” for some 8,000 Wagner troops near the town.
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“Assessing the footprint of the Wagner Group in Belarus may help assess the number of Wagner fighters who opt to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD),” the ISW noted Friday.
Prigozhin has said that his 24-hour mutiny was a protest of the MoD demanding that Wagner members sign contracts directly with the ministry by July 1. Since the aftermath of the conflict, Putin has begun seizing heavy military equipment from Wagner forces, stating that the group has been financed by the Kremlin over the past year.
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Reports of new Wagner settlements have caused concern for some eastern NATO states, who worry that the new camps are a direct threat toward members of the alliance.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda told reporters Thursday that he was “extremely concerned” about Wagner forces being present in Belarus, referring to them as “serial killers.”
“They could be, and emerge in Belarus at any moment,” Nausėda said. “And nobody knows when they could turn against us.”
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Wagner forces have been repeatedly accused of committing war crimes in the past, including while fighting beside Russia in the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. Videos surfaced online in April, in which the mercenaries were accused of putting the remains of Ukrainian soldiers’ heads on spikes near the city of Bakhmut, which has faced some of the most brutal fighting in the 16-month war.
